ALGORITHM FOR ASSESSING TIME AND COST RISKS AT ENTERPRISES
OF THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX 

Nikolay D. Pechalin, Postgraduate student, head of the corporate department, Central Scientific Research Radio Engineering Institute named after Academician A.I. Berg (9 build., 20 Novaya Basmannaya street, Moscow, Russia), npechalin@vk.com
Aleksey G. Finogeev, Doctor of technical sciences, professor, professor of the sub-department of computer-aided design systems, Penza State University (40 Krasnaya street, Penza, Russia), alexeyfinogeev@gmail.com

Background. The article considers the development of models and a method for assessing the time and cost risks of manufacturing products at defense industry enterprises. The objective is to create models and an algorithm for predictive risk analysis when drawing up a calendar schedule for the implementation of project tasks to support decisionmaking by managers of defense industry enterprises. Materials and methods. In the course of the research, models were developed for calculating and analyzing the risks of delays in delivery and changes in the cost of the electronic component base of products. Results. An important result is an algorithm for probabilistic assessment of the risks of deviations in the delivery of electronic components from the planned dates during product manufacturing. The risk analysis algorithm solves the problems of assessing the time and cost parameters of the project task for compliance with the predicted values at an early stage of the production cycle. The analysis results are used in the decision-making process, which allows compensating for uncertainty factors before the start of design work and increases the efficiency of production project management. Conclusions. Implementation of the model and method for predictive risk assessment based on the analysis of available statistics at the enterprise allows using the obtained results to analyze other parameters of the project task, for example, product reliability parameters and quality indicators. The models and algorithm for risk analysis are intended for the management personnel of the enterprise and are currently used in drawing up a calendar schedule of cooperation processes during the implementation of production tasks for the release of products of the defense industry complex.

predictive analysis, risks, project management, delivery time, component base cost, probability of deviations, schedule

Pechalin N.D., Finogeev A.G. Algorithm for assessing time and cost risks at enterprises of the military-industrial complex. Modeli, sistemy, seti v ekonomike, tekhnike, prirode i obshchestve = Models, systems, networks in economics, technology, nature and society. 2025;(1):138–148. (In Russ.). doi: 10.21685/2227-8486-2025-1-11